Search results for "Food prices"
showing 5 items of 5 documents
The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-west…
2016
Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe. Climate…
Forecasting the volatility of biofuel feedstock prices: the US evidence
2019
Given that, nowadays, 40% of the US corn crop is used for biofuel production, there is a growing concern that the rise in biofuel production might lead to an increase in food prices. However, it is also obvious that significant growth in biofuel use has minimized the demand for fossil fuel and has hence reduced the volume of carbon emissions. It is therefore crucial to model corn market volatility precisely because such an estimate could play a vital role in stabilizing food and biofuel market prices. For this purpose, we consider using the information content of the corn implied volatility (CIV) index to predict the corn futures market return volatility. Using symmetric and asymmetric GARC…
The Shaping of Public Economic Discourse in Postwar America: The 1947 Meat Shortage and Franco Modigliani’s Meat Plan
2015
Abstract This paper discusses the American debate over price controls and economic stabilization after World War II, when the transition from a war economy to a peace economy was characterized by bottlenecks in the productive system and shortages of food and other basic consumer goods, directly affecting the living standard of the population, the public opinion, and political discourse. Specifically, we will focus on the economist Franco Modigliani and his proposal for a “Plan to meet the problem of rising meat and other food prices without bureaucratic controls.” The plan prepared by Modigliani in October 1947 was based on a system of taxes and subsidies to foster a proper distribution of …
Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence
2015
We study the impact of global food price shocks on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, a 10% increase in global food inflation raises domestic inflation by about 0.5 percentage point after a year; however, the impact has declined over time and become less persistent. The global food price shocks of the 2000s had a much bigger impact on domestic inflation in emerging and developing economies than in advanced economies. This could reflect the smaller share of food in the consumption baskets in advanced economies. We also provide evidence that inflation expectations are more anchored in advanced than in emerging economies, which could also explain the smal…
The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe
2016
Abstract. Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on an…